Megatrends: Causal Structure and Open Questions

Most megatrend frameworks list forces in parallel: technology, demographics, climate, geopolitics. But these don't sit at the same level. Some cause others.

A fertility rate of 0.72 births per woman is a different kind of thing than "changing consumption patterns." The first is a measurement. The second is a behavior that might follow from measurements like the first.

The distinction matters for any forward-looking analysis. Knowing what's upstream (technology cost curves, demographic arithmetic) vs. what's downstream (policy responses, geographic sorting) clarifies where the forcing comes from—and where human choice still applies.