Megatrends: Causal Structure and Open Questions

Most megatrend frameworks list forces in parallel: technology, demographics, climate, geopolitics. But these don't sit at the same level. Some cause others.

A fertility rate of 0.72 births per woman is a different kind of thing than "changing consumption patterns." The first is a measurement. The second is a behavior that might follow from measurements like the first.

The distinction matters for any forward-looking analysis. Knowing what's upstream (technology cost curves, demographic arithmetic) vs. what's downstream (policy responses, geographic sorting) clarifies where the forcing comes from—and where human choice still applies.

How Sahel Countries Could Benefit from Their Gold→

Sahel countries produce significant quantities of gold. Much of the economic benefit stays local—circulating through communities near mining sites. What's missing is the infrastructure to capture value at the national level: reserves, low-cost financing, coordinated reinvestment.

Between 2020 and 2024, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Chad produced an estimated 850–1,050 tons of gold—worth $70–85 billion at current prices. The wide range reflects uncertainty in artisanal production, much of which goes unrecorded.

Artisanal mining is widespread and deeply rooted in local economies. Rather than working against this reality, effective policy works with it—creating conditions where formal participation becomes the path of least resistance for miners. The question is whether there's a policy sequence that could redirect the flow—keeping gold within national economies and converting it into development capital.

Business Analysis Framework

Three questions look similar but aren't:

• "Why does this business win?" (strategy)

• "How much cash does it generate?" (operations)

• "What returns do investors receive?" (financing)

Most analysis jumbles these together. Separating them prevents common errors: confusing business performance with financing decisions, missing the translation from strategy to numbers, applying inconsistent depth across projects.

The Business Model answers why customers pay and competitors don't win. The Operating Model translates that into revenue, costs, and free cash flow—independent of how the business is financed. The Financing Model divides that cash flow among stakeholders based on capital structure and priority.

They're sequential. Strategy feeds into operations. Operations feed into financing. Each layer has its own logic and its own validation. A company with a strong business model can have a weak operating model (poor execution). A company with strong operations can produce poor returns (bad capital structure).

The framework forces explicit translation at each handoff: Canvas elements become P&L line items. EBITDA becomes debt capacity and equity returns. Assumptions flow from qualitative (market position, competitive advantage) to quantitative (growth rates, margins, exit multiples).

When returns are below target, work backwards: Is this a financing problem (wrong capital structure), an operating problem (margins or growth), or a strategic problem (business model doesn't work)? The separation clarifies where the issue lives.